1. Strategy For Blackjack
2. Blackjack Against Dealer
3. Blackjack Dealing
4. Blackjack On Dealers

Blackjack odds are percentage figures which represent your probability of losing or winning a hand. They can also represent the house edge or their profit margins as well. Usually probability odds don't mean much on the short term, but they clearly average out in the long term and this is why the casinos always win over the long term.

One of the more frustrating hands in blackjack is being dealt a 12 when the dealer shows a 2 upcard. You hate to hit your 12 because you are afraid the dealer is going to give you a picture card and you’ll bust. A 3: Most blackjack players tend to soft double with ace/baby against a dealer's baby card up, but not with ace/medium against that same small card. This is all backwards. It's a downright shame to double down with a hand like ace/2 against a 3, Why? Because if you just hit it, you'll win 54% of the time. Genre: Card & Casino. If you like Blackjack, you'll love Microsoft Bubble! Beat the dealer! Make your bet, and you're dealt two cards. If you think you can get closer to 21 without going over, have the dealer give you another. Do you feel lucky? The best games to play are blackjack, Spanish 21, Vegas Strip BJ and Blackjack Switch. Avoid side bets. Side bets look exciting, because for a nominal amount you could possibly win a huge jackpot — worth hundreds or even thousands of dollars. The problem is that the odds against winning can be anywhere from 2-40%. Avoid wives tales.

Playing against a live dealer as opposed to a computer program affords a blackjack player many opportunities. Human dealers make mistakes that sharp players can always use to their own benefit. Various forms of advantage play can be used, such as shuffle tracking and hole carding.

We decided to make a few tables and charts of the most common blackjack probability odds for various scenarios and situations found while playing blackjack. The most important odds percentage represents the dealer's edge in the game. This is the long term advantage that they have which will eventually take your money away. Blackjack is actually one of the most popular games in the casino and also has some of the lowest odds of all the casino games, except casino craps of course. Generally their edge ranges from 1% to 15% depending on what variation of blackjack you are playing.

How to Beat the Casino House Odds

There is one feature that makes blackjack more desirable than any other casino game. There is actually a way to beat the house edge by increasing your odds. In fact, your probability odds in blackjack can be increase to the point where you would actually be making the profit in the long term, essentially turning the casino into a personal ATM. This practice is known as card counting and casinos don't like this because they know they will be losing money.

Before you start card counting, you should learn 'blackjack basic strategy', which is the mathematically correct way to play every move in blackjack to get the best odds. This can lower the house edge to less than 1 percent. When that percentage goes to a negative number such as -1%, then it is you who has the edge over the casino. This is when you complement basic strategy with card counting to get the highest efficiencies.

Odds vs. Dealer Up Card

The first odds chart shows what kind of advantage the player has vs. the dealer based on what his up card is showing. The first column in the chart is what card the dealer has showing after the cards have been dealt. The second column of the table shows the dealer's probability of going bust based on each card. The last column shows the advantage the player has and the probability of winning based on the basic strategy theory. As you can see, the dealer has about a 43% chance of going bust when he has a 5 showing as an up card. At the same time, the player has about 23% advantage as well. Notice that the player advantage goes negative when the 10 cards and ace start showing up. This means the player is more likely to lose.

Blackjack odds of Busting While Taking a Hit

This chart shows the probabilities of going bust after taking a hit. Busting means that your card total would go over 21 points and would be a hard total as well. The highest score you can get when being initially dealt two cards is 21 points so you can never go bust. This means if you took a hit on a hard 21, you would have a 100% probablity of going bust, which is common sense. Also, if you have 11 points or less, it is impossible to go over 21 points on the next hit and your odds of going bust would be 0 percent.

House Advantage with Multiple Number of Decks

The number of 52 card decks in a game of blackjack influences the house edge. In some cases, the odds increase in favor of the casino when more decks are used. The advantage edge can be as much as 1% towards the casino and this is a big number in terms of odds over the long term. As you can see here, a single deck of card gives the lowest edge for the casino and gives the player better odds. Multiple decks such as eight decks increases the house edge almost 18 times more than it would for the single deck!

Two Card Frequency Odds

The next odds table deals with the first two cards being dealt or the 2 card frequency odds. Every player is dealt two cards at the beginning of a round of blackjack so this chart tells you the percentage of getting different categories of hands. A natural blackjack is only 4.8%, which essentially is an ace dealt with a ten card straight off the initial deal. Normally the odds are 3 to 2 and you would win $3 for every $2 wagered. It's a small percentage but it's the most desirable hand to get. The lowest hand you can get is two points (two aces). This is part of the decision hands group where players are usually dealt soft hands and can make decisions without going bust. This group is the most common.

The other category is the hard standing hands. These hands are somewhat desirable because of the high scores likely to beat the dealer. These are the second most frequent two card blackjack hands. Finally there is a no bust two card hand. No bust means any two card hand that won't bust on the next hit, such as any soft hand or hard hand that is 11 points or less.

Probability Edge for Each Card Removed from Deck

The next table shows how much your odds improve after when certain cards have been dealt and removed from the deck. Certain cards taken out of the deck and increase or decrease your blackjack odds percentage and the house edge.

This is very important for card counting. If you want the absolute perfect odds in card counting, you have to acount for each small change in the odds whenever a card is dealt. As you can see from the table, when small cards are taken out of play, the odds increase in your favor overall. This is a paramount property of card counting. The opposite happens when large cards are dealt. Your odds begin to decrease. When you are counting cards, you will notice your count decreasing when large cards are dealt.

You can imagine how complicated it would be to be adding these numbers in your head while card counting at the same time. If your mind was a computer, it would be easier to keep track of the percentage. Some people can do this, and this is the way to become a perfect card counter! It is easier to keep track of the odds when playing with a single blackjack deck. For example, when five cards are seen on the table, they offer a 0.67% increase in your advantage. In fact, when a lot of fives are used up, your odds will be much higher than if any of the other low cards were used up, even the six point cards. Also, these effects are cumulative so you always need to keep track of the odds after every card is dealt. This data is actually quite amazing!

Strategy For Blackjack

Dealer Final Hand Probability Odds

This next table shows the odds of what the dealer's final hand will be. Usually in blackjack, the dealer must hit on 16 and stand on 17. These rules are slightly different for other variations of twenty-one. So generally, the odds of the dealer's final score being 16 are 0% because he must hit. This table will show the probability of the dealer busting or getting a non-bust hand as well as natural blackjacks.

Blackjack Against Dealer

By Henry Tamburin
No other hand makes blackjack players feel queasy than the dreaded 16. Players hate to hit the hand because they are afraid tobust. So many chicken out and stand no matter what the dealer shows. Others opt for the surrender option if it’s available figuring losing half a bet is better then losing it all. If your 16comes as a pair of 8’s most players are reluctant to split if the dealer shows a 9, 10, or ace because they are afraid of losing two bets instead of one. Then there is the 16 made up with anAce counted as 11 (i.e., soft 16). So what’s a player to do when he gets a 16?

First, let’s focus on a hard 16. That’s a hand that does not contain an Ace or if it does the Ace counts as one. Some examples of a hard 16 would be 10-6 or 5-7-4 or 7-8-Ace.

The correct basic playing strategy for hard 16 is to stand when the dealer shows a small card (2 through 6) and hit when the dealer shows a high card (7, 8, 9, 10, or Ace). Following thisplaying strategy will not guarantee that you will win every time but that you are more likely to lose less in the long run.. Let me explain.

Suppose you are dealt a 10-6 and the dealer shows a 7 upcard.

If you hit you win on average 30% of the time and lose 70%.

If you stand you will on average win 26% and lose 74%.

Note that you improve your chances of winning the hand by 4% if you hit rather than stand. But the dealer is still an overwhelming favorite to beat you because he will win 70% of the hands toyour 30%. But is it better to win 26% of the time by standing or 30% of the time by hitting? You should hit because it will increase your chance of winning by 4%, not much, but every percentagewill help you in the long run when you play blackjack.

So the bottom line with a hard 16 is this. Even by following the basic strategy, you will lose more hands than you win but in the long run, you will lose less than following a seat-of-the-pantsstrategy. Losing less on hands where you are the underdog is just as important as winning more when you are the favorite.

Blackjack Dealing

What if your 16 consists of three or more cards like 5-7-4? Normally the basic strategy ignores the composition of the hand. However, if you have a hard 16 hand consisting of three or morecards, then you should stand when the dealer has a 10 showing. The reason is that you have consumed a few of the small cards that you need if you were to draw. This tips the odds in favor ofstanding.

Some casinos allow players to surrender. This means you give up the opportunity to play out your hand and automatically lose half your bet. Even when surrender is offered, most players don’tlike “giving up” without a fight. So they rarely surrender. That’s unfortunate because surrendering a hard 16 when the dealer shows a 9, 10, or Ace will save you more money in the long run thanhitting. In fact, surrender is always the best option when your chance of winning a hand is less than 25%. Take the hand of hard 16 against a 10. If we hit our chance of winning is 23.4%. Thismeans the dealer’s chance of beating us is 76.6%. If we played a hundred hard 16’s against the dealer 10 with those probabilities, we would end up winning about $23 and losing $77 for a netloss of $54 on average. By surrendering on every hand our net loss would be $50. Get the point? You are better off losing $50 then $54 which is why surrendering a hard 16 against a 10 is thebetter play because you will save $4.

If you happen to be dealt a soft 16 (like Ace-5), you should never surrender and you should never stand. Your first option is to double but only if the dealer shows a weak 4, 5, or 6 upcard. Ifnot, then hit.

Finally, we have a pair of 8’s. The correct basic strategy play is to always split the 8’s no matter what the dealer shows. Even though you will lose money on both 8’s when you split, thecombined loss, in the long run, will be less than the amount you will lose by playing the one hand as a 16. Splitting 8’s against a dealer 10, by the way, is also a slightly better play thensurrendering.

No question that 16 is a lousy blackjack hand. Unfortunately, it’s one of the most frequent hands you are going to be dealt in blackjack. But, by following the above playing strategy you willbe optimizing your chances of winning more, and losing less, in the long run. It’s the smart way to play blackjack.

Blackjack On Dealers

Henry Tamburin has been a respected casino gambling writer for the past 50 years. He is the author of the Ultimate Blackjack Strategy Guide and was editor of the BlackjackInsider newsletter. You can read his latest articles on blackjack, video poker, and his personal playing experiences at https://www.888casino.com/blog/writers/henry-tamburin